Chavez faces unfavourable election outlook

By: Arcaya & Asociados - THINK TANK - SUBJECT: Outlook for the November 23 regional elections in Venezuela. SIGNIFICANCE: The government faces a difficult run-up to the elections looming in less than a month. ANALYSIS: It is expected that the government of President Hugo Chavez will face a serious setback in municipal and regional elections due on November 23. Since first elected in 1998, the administration has enjoyed a stunning electoral run owing to strong popular support, a pro-poor policy agenda and the decision by unpopular opposition forces not to contest elections. This came to an end in December 2007, when Chavez's constitutional reform proposal was rejected in a national referendum. The government goes into the November elections on the back of this unexpected defeat, and facing serious questions about corruption and competence. THINK TANK - SUBJECT: Outlook for the November 23 regional elections in Venezuela. SIGNIFICANCE: The government faces a difficult run-up to the elections looming in less than a month. ANALYSIS: It is expected that the government of President Hugo Chavez will face a serious setback in municipal and regional elections due on November 23. Since first elected in 1998, the administration has enjoyed a stunning electoral run owing to strong popular support, a pro-poor policy agenda and the decision by unpopular opposition forces not to contest elections. This came to an end in December 2007, when Chavez's constitutional reform proposal was rejected in a national referendum. The government goes into the November elections on the back of this unexpected defeat, and facing serious questions about corruption and competence.