Foreign relations fracas isolates Chavez

By: A&A@arcaya.com - THINK TANK - SUBJECT: The destructive course of Venezuelan foreign relations.SIGNIFICANCE: President Hugo Chavez has failed to galvanise domestic or international support for his sharpened anti-imperialist stance.ANALYSIS: The last fortnight has seen an escalation of political tensions between Venezuela and the United States. These have spilled into the military realm: Venezuela last week completed joint military manoeuvres with Russia, while the United States recently reactivated the Fourth Fleet in the Caribbean, 60 years after it was disbanded.Escalation. During this brief two week period:􀂾 Venezuela expelled US ambassador Patrick Duddy, while Washington responded by expelling Venezuelan ambassador Bernardo Alvarez. President Hugo Chavez has said Venezuela will only restore diplomatic relations when there is a US administration respectful of Venezuela.􀂾 The government deported the Americas director of Human Rights Watch (HRW), Jose Miguel Vivanco, and his deputy, Daniel Wilkinson, following their presentation in Caracas of a report heavily critical of the Chavez government.􀂾 The United States indicted three senior Venezuelan officials for links to the Colombian FARC rebels and complicity in drug trafficking.􀂾 Washington decertified Venezuela for lack of cooperation in counter-narcotics activities. Venezuela has been decertified every year since 2005, when it expelled Drug Enforcement Agency officials.2􀂾 In Miami, the trial has begun in the 'Maletagate' scandal over alleged illegal campaign funding from Chavez for Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner. Although the Chavez government has denounced the trial as politically motivated, there are some embarrassing claims being made, including that Venezuela channelled cash to countries willing to support its UN Security Council bid in 2006. The trial has raised problematic questions that the Chavez government has been reluctant to address. Last week, National Assembly President Cilla Flores rejected calls for an inquiry. It also coincides with Transparency International's latest Corruption Perceptions Index, which ranks Venezuela 158th, the lowest in the Western Hemisphere except Haiti.Venezuelan strategy. Throughout President George Bush's administration, relations between Caracas and Washington have been strained. However, it is not clear why Venezuela resorted to expulsions and assumed such an offensive position against the United States in the last weeks of the Bush administration:􀀗 Chavez has claimed that Washington is conspiring with the opposition to overthrow his government. However, given the Bush administration's preoccupation with the US economic crisis and foreign policy in Afghanistan and Iraq, claims of covert US action in Venezuela have limited credibility.􀀗 There is continued scepticism as to the veracity of claims of an alleged coup conspiracy, in which Chavez alleges US involvement.􀀗 Observers have noted that Chavez has become increasingly reckless in foreign policy as his contact with mentor Fidel Castro has declined. Castro was seen as a moderating influence, in particular in relation to Venezuelan foreign affairs and alliance-building.3􀀗 Opposition groups argue that the dispute with Washington is an effort to distract the electorate from pressing domestic policy problems ahead of regional elections on November 23. The pro-government alliance is now expected to lose control of at least eight of 23 state governorships. Chavez is also seen to be playing the nationalist card in order to rally the support of grassroots supporters.􀀗 There are signs of a power shift in Chavez's immediate political circle, with radical leftists manoeuvring against more centrist elements.Increasing isolation. However, whatever the motivations behind this aggressive posture, Chavez does not appear to have succeeded in mobilising a new anti-US offensive either at home or overseas. If anything, his actions have had the reverse effect and look likely to isolate Venezuela over the coming months:􀀹 Chavez purportedly expelled Duddy as an act of solidarity with his Bolivian counterpart, Evo Morales. However, his actions have deflected attention from Bolivia and onto relations between Venezuela and the United States.􀀹 The heads of state meeting of the South American Union (UNASUR) in Chile on September 15 issued the Moneda Declaration in full support of the Morales administration and the territorial integrity of Bolivia. However, Venezuela was sidelined at the meeting and country delegates defused Venezuelan pressure for an anti-US statement.􀀹 Offers by Chavez to provide military support to Morales, and his criticisms of the commander in chief of the Bolivian armed forces, defy a firm regional tradition of non-intervention and have angered regional governments -- particularly Brazil. Senior figures in the Bolivian administration are also reportedly incensed by Chavez's statements.4􀀹 Chavez has failed to lure Beijing into overt support for his anti-US stance. At a meeting in China this week, the two countries signed a series of new trade and commercial agreements, but the Chinese leadership did not respond to an emotive Chavez speech on the construction of a multipolar world order. Indeed, Beijing stressed that bilateral ties with Venezuela have no ideological content, a strong rebuke to the Venezuelan president.Although no opinion polls have been conducted since the Duddy expulsion, the anti-US position is unlikely to translate into strengthened electoral support for Chavez. In the December 2007 constitutional reform referendum, Venezuelan voters sent a clear message to the government that they wanted a more centrist policy course and greater attention to domestic policy issues. The latest fall-out with Washington is unlikely to strengthen wavering support among moderate Chavistas and floating voters.Negative impact. The expulsion of Duddy and the HRW directors may also have further negative consequences. To begin with, it leaves Venezuela without diplomatic representation in the United States, a country on which it has enormous commercial dependence -- the United States accounts for over 60% of Venezuelan oil exports; it is the only significant market for Venezuela's heavy crude mix; and Venezuela's refining capacities are concentrated there.While not immediately likely, a US embargo on Venezuela would have dire consequences for the Chavez government. This latest disagreement will strengthen arguments within the United States that it is time to reduce reliance on Venezuela. Moreover, Caracas will struggle to build bridges with the incoming US presidential team; efforts by the outgoing Venezuelan ambassador to build contacts with Senator Barack Obama's campaign have been squandered and Venezuela faces further marginalisation.5At the same time, the deportation of the HRW team has reinforced the organisation's claim that human rights observation and the rule of law in Venezuela have deteriorated. The alleged rough handling of the two HRW employees has drawn greater attention to an ill-timed report (this is the third occasion HRW has issued a critical report ahead of a Venezuelan election), which is claimed to contain a number of inaccuracies. While Venezuela could have mounted a solid critique of the report, its actions have instead served to reinforce its negative message. Subsequent government statements regarding the deportation may have other unanticipated and damaging consequences:􀂏 For example, the government has stated that foreigners on a tourist visa cannot make comments critical of the Venezuelan president or government.􀂏 This may raise serious problems for international election observers due to arrive in the country for the November elections.The deportation of Vivanco, a Chilean national, has also deepened an increasing rift with Chile, with Chilean Foreign Minister Alejandro Foxley sending a strongly worded diplomatic note to Caracas in relation to Vivanco's treatment.CONCLUSION: Chavez's apparently unilateral decision to purse a more aggressive stance against the United States may backfire against Venezuela's interests and comes at a time when serious questions are being asked about corruption. His international isolation looks set to increase.