Geopolitical Diary: Venezuela's Student Movement Revs Its Engine

GMT - Venezuela’s student movement kicked back into gear Wednesday as student leaders announced a two-day planning session. On Thursday, the student groups will start outlining a campaign against President Hugo Chavez’s attempt to eliminate presidential term limits through a constitutional referendum. According to Wednesday’s announcement, the students will instigate significant protests throughout Venezuela and launch a national education effort to draw attention to what they see as the dangers of Chavez’s bid for indefinite re-election. The last time the student movement surged to the forefront of Venezuela’s political scene was in the lead-up to the December 2007 constitutional referendum, when this very issue — along with dozens of others — was put to voters. The opposition parties and student organizations led massive protests across the country — and much to nearly everyone’s surprise, the referendum failed, despite Chavez’s high popularity at the time. This was partly a result of the opposition’s efforts, but it also might have been due to the complexity of the constitutional rewrite, which was released for public perusal only days before Venezuelans cast their votes. This time, the referendum will be simpler: There will be only one issue and one vote. Venezuelans have experienced nearly a decade of Chavez’s rule, and they are well aware of what they it could mean if they decide to scrap term limits. At the same time, conditions in Venezuela have changed a great deal since the 2007 vote. The country is on the brink of economic crisis, as global oil prices falter and the government scrambles to cover its expenses. With his request for a constitutional amendment, which came soon after Nov. 23 state and municipal elections that weakened his hold in key regions, Chavez probably hopes to secure the change on term limits in the next few months, before the effects of the financial crisis truly begin to sting. And it is in these few months that the student opposition will have to spin up a national campaign. We have little doubt that this can be accomplished. Venezuela’s student movement is quite organized and has strong links to the Center for Applied Nonviolent Action and Strategies (formerly the student movement Otpor, which was instrumental in Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic’s ouster in 2000). The Venezuelan students are organized through an interconnected web that maintains the capacity for logistical coordination while avoiding the need for a vulnerable core of high-profile leaders. Despite violent clashes with Venezuelan authorities, the students have lain relatively low over the past year, with opposition events limited mainly to campuses. Most recently, the student groups staged demonstrations to encourage voting in the Nov. 23 elections. In essence, they have been reserving their strength for a day when there is enough potential support to mount a true challenge to Chavez. The upcoming referendum presents just such an opportunity. The goal, of course, will be to rally enough support to defeat the referendum and present a definitive challenge to Chavez. This will put the student groups directly in the path of an increasingly agitated president, and the potential for violent clashes between government forces and protesters would be high. Even more dangerous is the potential for armed clashes between student leaders and chavistas equipped with automatic rifles. Although the issue at hand will be decided on the day of the referendum (which has yet to be scheduled), the real danger looms in the coming months, as falling revenues strain the government’s ability to sustain social spending. Given the wide array of services the Venezuelan government provides, spending cutbacks could be felt in painful ways by the public — such as more expensive gasoline or, in the worst-case scenario, increased food shortages. By reinvigorating their public efforts now, before economic hardships are more keenly felt, the students have given themselves essentially a running start. They have the organizational wherewithal necessary to challenge Chavez; now all they need is public support. The combination of the referendum campaign plus looming economic troubles could give Venezuela’s student movement just what it is looking for.